This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite...

This study addresses a significant gap in the literature by comparing the effectiveness of traditional statistical methods with artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in predicting bankruptcy among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Traditional bankruptcy prediction models often fail to...

The EBA-lite methodology is a key input in external sector assessments for over three-quarters of IMF member countries, representing a broad set of emerging and low-income economies. The EBA-lite methodology is refined periodically, and this paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the...

In this paper, I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered...

In this paper we show that both climate models and economic models studying the effects of climate change are characterized by high uncertainty. Hence, far reaching policy implications such as the net zero goal lack a definite scientific foundation. Neverthelss, it cannot be excluded that the...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

Dem Zusammenhang zwischen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Modellen und modelliertem Wirtschaftsleben kommt eine Schlüsselbedeutung bei der Bewältigung gesellschaftlicher Krisen zu. Wenn ökonomische Modellwelten mit anderen Welten interagieren, spricht man von "Performativität". Carsten Damm...

Um die Treibhausgasneutralität bis 2045 zu erreichen, wird unter anderem erforderlich sein, dass die Industrie klimaneutrale Produktionsweisen entwickelt und umsetzt. Damit einher gehen gesellschaftliche Aushandlungsprozesse darüber, welche neuen Technologien eingesetzt werden und welche...

This paper discusses GTAP-L, an extension of the GTAP model that allows for the analysis of U.S. simulated unemployment effects in trade scenarios. The market clearing condition in the standard GTAP model which equates vacancies to separations was replaced with a matching function. In a matching...

This electronic monograph (E-Monograph) has seven chapter with different models for policy modelling. The first chapter presents the introduction that we explain each chapter. Second chapter is interested to evaluate how artificial intelligence (AI) can change the way to do it policy modeling....

We provide an economic model of a decentralized exchange (DEX) that allows investors to concentrate liquidity within exogenously specified price intervals (e.g., Uniswap V3). We demonstrate that providing liquidity for a risky vs. risk-free asset pair within any price interval is analogous to...

According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly...

Uninterrupted and affordable access to electricity in the national territory is essential for the realization of daily life activities. National Energy Security can be understood as the capacity of the State to guarantee sufficient uninterrupted energy availability in a sustainable and...

This paper outlines a strategic plan for the development of the fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models. The plan features a new Canadian workhorse macroeconomic model as well as a suite of alternative models to better support a risk management approach to...

This paper aims to bridge the gap between models in research and models used to support policy decisions in central banks. Models used in central bank projection environments overlap with research models and benefit from lessons learned in research, but they differ from research models in...

Scholars have debated the costs and benefits of Internet intermediary liability for decades. Many of their arguments rest on informal economic arguments about the effects of different liability rules. Some scholars argue that broad immunity is necessary to prevent overmoderation; others argue...

The neutral rate of interest is an important concept and communication tool for central banks. We develop a small open economy model with overlapping generations to study the determinants of the neutral real rate of interest in a small open economy. The model captures domestic factors such as...

In a controversial policy paper, Bachmann et al. (2022) argued back in March 2022 that the economic effects for Germany of a complete immediate stop of energy imports from Russia would be small, between 0.5% and 3% of GDP. Baqaee et al. (2022) even presented 0.3% GDP loss in the case of an...

The ongoing revolution in artificial intelligence, especially deep learning, is transforming research across many fields, including economics. Its impact is particularly strong in solving equilibrium economic models. These models often lack closed-form solutions, so economists have relied on...

Economics requires understanding and analyzing forces that bring buyers and sellers to a market place who then negotiate exchanges of goods and services based on a mutually agreeable price. Economists have their own method of modeling whereby models are first conceived of some notion of economic...