Search Results - subject_exact:"Wirtschaftsprognose"

An in-depth assessment of the Central Bank of Malta's projections

Saliba, Maria Christine - 2026

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the performance of the macroeconomic projections produced by Central Bank of Malta (CBM) staff. A real-time macroeconomic database published by the CBM is utilized, allowing for the computation of forecast errors based on the first official data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655280

Forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP based on a dynamic factor model with regularization

Akhmet, Alisher - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609234

Direct Gaussian process predictive regressions with mixed frequency data

Hauzenberger, Niko; Marcellino, Massimiliano; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609527

A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework : Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hlédik, Tibor - 2026

This paper describes the Quarterly Macro Forecasting Framework (QMFF), which is a novel approach to macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. At the core of this framework is a Quarterly Projection Model, with main behavioral equations quantified as deviations of real variables from their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612585

Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Danov, Nikolay - 2026

This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612596

Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

Abderrahim, Mustapha - 2026

The paper describes QMPM, the Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Algeria that underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System. The model is designed to capture the key features of the economy, including the importance of the hydrocarbon sector, sizable fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612618

Introducing BISTRO: a foundational model for unconditional and conditional forecasting of macroeconomic time series

Koyuncu, Batuhan; Kwon, Byeungchun; Lombardi, Marco; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613838

Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Frühjahr 2026

Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2026

Die deutsche Wirtschaft hatte sich zum Ende vergangenen Jahres hin stabilisiert; viele Konjunkturindikatoren entwickelten sich positiv. Die Wachstumschancen für 2026 und 2027 wurden aufgrund der von der Koalitionsregierung auf den Weg gebrachten fiskalpolitischen Ausgabenprogramme und...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614144

Measuring economic outlook in the news

Beck, Elliot; Eckert, Franziska; Kühne, Linus; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615555

Austria's economy sees light at the end of the tunnel : economic outlook for 2025 to 2027

Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2026

Austria's economy is recovering over the projection period from a recession that, according to the revised National Accounts, proved comparably severe to Germany's. The rebound is driven by private consumption, while foreign trade in goods continues to contract for the time being. Residential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615627

Outlier-robust evaluation of fixed-event macroeconomic survey expectations

Delis, Panagiotis; Kontogeorgos, Georgios - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593667

Do anecdotes matter? : exploring the Beige Book through textual analysis from 1970 to 2025

Du, Shengwu; Haberkorn, Flora; Kitschelt, Isabel; Lee, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605570

Projecting inflation tail risks in a small open economy : some evidence from Singapore

Chow, Hwee-kwan; Lee, Jordan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624528

German economy on the upswing-global economy continues to grow moderately

Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - 2026

After three years of subdued economic activity, the German economy is on the road to recovery. While the Iran war and erratic U.S. trade policy are weighing on growth, their impact is only moderate. Although the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that U.S. tariffs are unlawful, this does not change...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624987

The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset

Madeira, Carlos - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625232

Beating the "pros" with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago; Areosa, Waldyr Dutra; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625414

Forecasting economic growth with traditional methods and a simple neural network model

Li, Shujie; Feng, Yuanhua - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627073

Nahost-Krieg trübt Konjunkturausblick : OeNB-Interimsprognose vom März 2026

Fenz, Gerhard; Fritzer, Friedrich; Graf, Bernhard; … - 2026

Nach einer zweijährigen Rezession verzeichnete Österreich 2025 ein moderates Wirtschaftswachstum von 0,7 %. Der Start in das Jahr 2026 verlief positiv. Der am 28. Februar ausgebrochene Nahost- Krieg und die in Folge gestiegenen Energiepreise bringen jedoch erneut große Unsicherheit mit sich...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627261

OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2026 : Testing Resilience

2026

The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy that was being driven by supportive financial and fiscal conditions and increasing demand for artificial intelligence technologies. However, the recent major disruption to global energy and commodity markets has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015630775

Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters

Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638609

Empirical assessment of budget multipliers for current and capital expenditures in Kazakhstan

Bukenov, Аmantay - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638644

Erkennen von Expansionsphasen mit der IW-Konjunkturampel

Grömling, Michael; Wirths, Benjamin Paul - 2026 - Stand: Mai 2026

Die IW-Konjunkturampel wurde im Jahr 2015 entwickelt, um die Vielzahl von teilweise heterogenen Konjunkturinformationen systematisch zu bündeln und in einem aussagekräftigen Gesamtbild darzustellen. Mit diesem Verfahren werden für Deutschland, die USA, China, das Vereinigte Königreich und...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640802

Krieg im Nahen und Mittleren Osten führt zu deutlich erhöhter Inflation : gesamtwirtschaftliche Prognose für Österreich 2026 bis 2028 vom Juni 2026

Fenz, Gerhard; Fritzer, Friedrich; Graf, Bernhard; … - 2026

Die österreichische Wirtschaft hat zum Start ins Jahr 2026 positiv überrascht. Der Konflikt im Nahen und Mittleren Osten hat jedoch seit März die Inflation sprunghaft ansteigen lassen und dürfte die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung zur Jahresmitte deutlich dämpfen. In Summe erwartet die...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656276

Potential output in Canada : 2026 assessment

Chernoff, Alex; Hajzler, Christopher; Houle, Stéphanie; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027-29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647201

Assessing global potential output growth : April 2026

De Munnik, Daniel; Hess, Kristina; Muiruri, Walter; … - 2026 - Last updated: May 25, 2026

We present the annual update of the Bank of Canada staff estimates for global potential output growth. Growth in global potential output is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon at just above 3%, underpinned by the general strength in trend productivity growth, including...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647202

On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)

Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650517

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On the wisdom of crowds (of economists)

Diebold, Francis X.; Mora, Aarón; Shin, Minchul - 2025

Book / Working Paper

News-based inflation expectations : LLM-assisted measurement and forecasting

Tanisa Tawichsri; Suppawong Tuarob; Nuwat Nookhwun; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650750

Partisan bias in economic forecasts : experimental evidence from the presidential elections in Argentina

Mariño Fages, Diego - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652098

Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Sommer 2026

Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2026

Nach gutem Start der deutschen Wirtschaft in dieses Jahr hinein haben sich seit Ende Februar durch den Irankrieg, insbesondere durch die Sperrung der Straße von Hormus und der damit verbundenen Energieverteuerung, die Perspektiven für Wachstum und Inflation deutlich verschlechtert. Die...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652574

Kalshi and the rise of macro markets

Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653041

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Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Diercks, Anthony M.; Katz, Jared Dean; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting the economic effects of AI

Karger, Ezra; Kuusela, Otto; Abaluck, Jason; Bryan, Kevin; … - 2026

We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637299

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Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI

Karger, Ezra; Kuusela, Otto; Abaluck, Jason; Bryan, Kevin A. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Inflation expectations in Japan : forecast revision and forecast trend

Zhai, Weiyang; Yoshida, Yūshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573566

Survey design and professional forecasters : the case of uncertainty in the US SPF

Knüppel, Malte; Pavlova, Lora - 2026

Histogram forecasts of inflation and growth from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) allow for an assessment of the evolution of forecast uncertainty. However, this assessment is complicated by structural breaks in measured uncertainty arising from changes in histogram bin widths...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636379

Forecasting inflation with artificial intelligence : a comparative analysis

Agostina Gonzalez, Daniela - 2026

Inflationary dynamics underscore the need for advanced methodologies to enhance forecasting accuracy. This paper explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in generating short-term inflation forecasts for Argentina during the 2023-2024 period. The methodology leverages OpenAI's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653867

Nowcasting economic activity in European regions using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model

Barbaglia, Luca; Frattarolo, Lorenzo; Hauzenberger, Niko; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668323

Getting back on track : forecasting after extreme observations

Boug, Pål; Hungnes, Håvard; Kurita, Takamitsu - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668310

Integrating nowcasts into an ensemble of data-driven forecasting models for SARI hospitalizations in Germany

Schienle, Melanie - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668695

Short-term inflation projections : the new BoG'STIP model

Bragoudakis, Zacharias; Karakitsios, Alexandros; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665262

Reactions to the Bernanke Review from Bank of England watchers

Aikman, David; Barwell, Richard - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667912

Carpe diem : can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil?

Benmoussa, Amor Aniss; Ellwanger, Reinhard; Snudden, Stephen - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668072

The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy

Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu - 2026

The Bank of Finland produces forecasts for the Finnish economy using advanced modelling tools. Central to this process is its Aino model, which is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates various aspects of the Finnish economy. The forecasts support policy decisions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666638