This paper, based on the Mattei Lecture that the author delivered at the 2025 Africa Growth and Opportunity–Research in Action Conference, argues that Africa can anchor a new model of growth—and bolster global resilience—by shifting from commodity dependence to value-added production and...

Indonesia’s services sector has emerged as a key driver of economic growth and employment. Services have also been the driving force of global trade and investment. Advances in technology are expected to further improve the tradability of services, creating new opportunities for Indonesia....

This paper provides a critical examination of the empirical basis of the output convergence debate in the light of recent developments in the analysis of dynamic heterogeneous panels with interactive effects. It shows that popular tools such as Barro's cross-country regressions and two-way fixed...

This study evaluates the causal impact of Indonesia's Power Transmission Development Project on regional economic development. Employing the Generalized Synthetic Control Method on district-level satellite data, we find a statistically significant increase in economic activity (p=0.033), which...

This paper revisits the "too much finance" hypothesis by reassessing the relationship between financial depth and economic growth using an expanded dataset (1960-2019) and a systematic estimation strategy that avoids reliance on any single, potentially arbitrary sample window. We estimate both...

This paper explores the economic consequences of (taxing) power fragmentation using both theory and data. We first formalize tax policy as the result of interministerial competition where the Minister of Finance ('Guardian') and the Minister of Mines ('Spender') have distinct objective...

We provide new evidence on the effects of fiscal consolidation measures on output, unemployment, income inequality and consumer price inflation. To identify causal impacts, we use a narrative-based instrumental variable strategy drawing on historical records of exogenous fiscal changes motivated...

This study provides sector-level insights to inform energy strategies consistent with SDG 7 and SDG 13. Drawing on a panel of 43 emerging and developing economies (1998-2020), we estimate a GMM panel vector autoregression (PVAR) linking foreign direct investment, sectoral GDP, energy demand, and...

This introduction grounds the middle-income (MI) trap by looking at the empirical realities of firms, sectors, national, and subnational institutions embedded in global value chains (GVCs). While MI-trap scholarship has shed light on macro-structural constraints, it often overlooks international...

In proposing industrial policies to promote development-enhancing upgrading, both the Middle-Income Trap (MIT) and Global Value Chain (GVC) literatures imply a "technocratic" approach that matches a given technical challenge to the right policy instrument. This paper suggests that, apart from...

Bridging together the Middle-Income Trap (MIT) literature with the Global Value Chains (GVCs) approach may provide a more fine-grained understanding of the middle-income (MI) countries' developmental dilemmas. While the former identifies the structural challenges these countries face, the latter...

In an era of fragmented global production and domestic decentralization, middle-income countries confront the complex challenge of industrial upgrading. While national governments remain central to industrial policy design and funding, upgrading unfolds through multi-level interactions between...

This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can...

This article investigates the dynamic interrelationships between the shadow economy, inflation, and economic growth in 15 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period 1991-2017. The study employs a simultaneous equations framework estimated through the Three-Stage...

This study investigates the relationship between green finance and environmental sustainability, with particular attention towards how these dynamics foster green economic growth within BRICS economies. Using a balanced panel dataset spanning 25 years, the research employs the Method of Moments...

Since the 1980s, state capacity has been a major explanation for countries leaving the middle-income trap. However, this literature is unable to explain the failed experiences of countries with relatively high state capacity. This was the case of Chile after the unsuccessful enaction of a series...

This paper makes the case for measuring economic activity in real time in a middle-income setting using indicators alternative to the standard System of National Accounts measure of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP remains indispensable, yet its limits as a welfare proxy are amplified where...

Sweden's economic growth in relation to developments in the rest of the world exhibits three distinct phases over the past 170 years. From 1890 to 1950, Sweden experienced faster growth than comparable countries. This period of liberalization was followed by a phase of lagging behind until...

Does "full vertical alignment" - political congruence across national, state, and local tiers - drive economic development? Using a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close state elections in India, we estimate the causal effects of multilevel alignment on growth, inequality, and...