Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies...

This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network....

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

When the UK left the EU, it introduced a new import tariff schedule, one of the largest MFN tariff reforms in decades of a developed economy. This paper exploits this policy change to estimate the elasticity of imports to MFN tariffs, addressing the endogeneity of trade policy through two...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...

We consider welfare impacts of prohibitive tariffs on trading partners. Initially, there is prohibitive tariff by one country and a zero tariff by its trading partner. Thereafter, the trading partner also resorts to prohibitive tariff. We demonstrate how prohibitive tariffs by the trading...

Die Studie simuliert mit Hilfe des CGE-Modells des HWWI die kurzfristigen Folgen des aktuellen US-Zollregimes (Stand Herbst/Winter 2025) für Hamburg. Aggregiert bleiben BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland, der EU und Hamburg nahe null, während die USA in ein stagflationäres Umfeld geraten....

Die Studie simuliert mit Hilfe des CGE-Modells des HWWI die kurzfristigen Folgen des aktuellen US-Zollregimes (Stand Herbst/Winter 2025) für Hamburg. Aggregiert bleiben BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland, der EU und Hamburg nahe null, während die USA in ein stagflationäres Umfeld geraten....

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at...

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment...

The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump's tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump's tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a...

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

The intersection of environmental policies and trade policies on external diseconomies has received considerable attention in recent years. However, the impacts of the timing of pollution taxes versus import tariffs on economic performance have not been formally considered, and this forms the...

This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports, concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from six selected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first few months after...

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

This paper introduces a framework that integrates Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) elasticities with the ADB Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of tariffs on Value Added at the country-sector level. Using the data on USA tariffs...

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

This paper presents a dataset and an analytical framework to study the welfare effects of tariff changes on women. The data is an extension of the Household Impacts of Tariffs (HIT) dataset, which contains harmonized household survey data for 54 low and lower middle-income countries. It includes...

US President Donald Trump has recently announced that tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, 2025. This policy brief shows that the US tariffs would have a large impact on the North American neighbors. In the event of retaliation, all sectors of the economy...

Mit der Neuordnung der internationalen Lieferketten hat Mexiko als Standort für neue Auslandsinvestitionen an Bedeutung gewonnen. Das Land konnte vom Nearshoring profitieren, das heißt von der Verlagerung von Dienstleistungen oder Produktionsprozessen in die Nähe der Konsumentenmärkte. Damit...

Bei der Erläuterung von Präsident Trumps "Befreiungstag"-Zöllen vom 2. April 2025 schlug Stephen Miran, Präsident Trumps Vorsitzender des Rates der Wirtschaftsberater, vor, dass Länder die US-Zölle ohne Vergeltungsmaßnahmen akzeptieren, um zu einer fairen "Lastenteilung" zu kommen (Miran:...

Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this...

Zwischen den USA und der Europäischen Union (EU) könnte sich ein vollumfassender Handelskrieg entwickeln. Vor drei Monaten erhob US-Präsident Donald Trump am "Liberation Day" hohe Einfuhrzölle gegen fast alle Länder, auch die EU. Dann setzte er sie kurzfristig aus, um mit über 90...

Trump's renewed tariffs on traditional allies-including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil-signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is...

This policy brief examines European and US economic expertsʼ expectations and recommendations for tariffs on US, EU, and global imports at the end of 2025, as collected in the latest wave (2025Q2) of the Economic Expert Survey. The results show that economic experts in Europe expect...

This short factual overview paper describes the complexity created by the tariffs imposed by the US, especially for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The Policy Brief concludes by highlighting the importance of the EU "Access2Market" tool in addressing these new complexities, helping EU...

In diesem vom Auswärtigen Amt geförderten Report wird eine neue Methodik für ein IW-Monitoring hoher Importanstiege aus China und möglicher Umlenkungseffekte aus China nach Deutschland aufgrund der hohen US-Zölle auf chinesische Importe entwickelt. Sie hat erstens das Ziel, ungewöhnliche...

This Policy Brief examines economic experts' expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and...

On 1 March 2018, President Trump declared a 25% tariff on certain steel imports by invoking Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act. The tariff pitted two of America's most storied and interconnected industries, steel and auto producers, against one another and made allies out of longtime...

In April 2025, the United States abruptly announced exceptionally high tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries (levels not seen in nearly 150 years) shocking the global economy. Within a week, most measures were postponed for 90 days (until July 9, 2025), but tariffs on Chinese goods...