Since 2018, tariffs have re-emerged as a tool for protecting domestic economies, particularly in the US. This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of various import tariff scenarios using a four-region dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi-sectoral production network....

This paper develops a dynamic real-options model of tariff deterrence in which the exporting country, though subject to the importing country's market power, assumes the role of leader in a Stackelberg framework under uncertainty by acting preventively to dissuade the importer from imposing a...

This paper examines the impact on crude oil prices of the trade tariffs announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025 ("Liberation Day"). More specifically, it uses fractional integration methods to analyse daily data on WTI, Brent and Murban oil prices spanning the period from 3 June...

This paper introduces a framework that integrates Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) elasticities with the ADB Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of tariffs on Value Added at the country-sector level. Using the data on USA tariffs...

This paper presents a dataset and an analytical framework to study the welfare effects of tariff changes on women. The data is an extension of the Household Impacts of Tariffs (HIT) dataset, which contains harmonized household survey data for 54 low and lower middle-income countries. It includes...

The digitalization of global supply chains and the increasing complexity of international trade have created both opportunities and challenges for customs administrations. The European Union has responded to these dynamics through the new EU customs reform, which aims to achieve full digital...

When the UK left the EU, it introduced a new import tariff schedule, one of the largest MFN tariff reforms in decades of a developed economy. This paper exploits this policy change to estimate the elasticity of imports to MFN tariffs, addressing the endogeneity of trade policy through two...

Die Studie simuliert mit Hilfe des CGE-Modells des HWWI die kurzfristigen Folgen des aktuellen US-Zollregimes (Stand Herbst/Winter 2025) für Hamburg. Aggregiert bleiben BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland, der EU und Hamburg nahe null, während die USA in ein stagflationäres Umfeld geraten....

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

Transaction-level quantity discounts are a pervasive feature of US trade, shaping both price variation and tariff incidence. Using administrative microdata, we show that these discounts reflect transaction-level scale economies rather than market power. Accounting for these micro-level economies...

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

The intersection of environmental policies and trade policies on external diseconomies has received considerable attention in recent years. However, the impacts of the timing of pollution taxes versus import tariffs on economic performance have not been formally considered, and this forms the...

Die Studie simuliert mit Hilfe des CGE-Modells des HWWI die kurzfristigen Folgen des aktuellen US-Zollregimes (Stand Herbst/Winter 2025) für Hamburg. Aggregiert bleiben BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland, der EU und Hamburg nahe null, während die USA in ein stagflationäres Umfeld geraten....

We study how firms' expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export...

This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports, concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from six selected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first few months after...

• The EU-India FTA generates mutual economic gains of 0.12-0.13% of GDP for both partners, with bilateral trade surging by 41-65%. • Since the 50 percentage points tariffs imposed by the US cost India 1.6% of GDP, the EU-India FTA provides a crucial hedge while the EU demonstrates commitment...

This study, set against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, examines the impact of soybean tariff adjustments on the abnormal asymmetric behavior in the futures market. By employing specialized analytical methods that capture market volatility asymmetry...

Using administrative longitudinal firm- and plant-level data from Mexico that links manufacturing firms to their customs records and covers the period 2014 - 2023, I examine whether US tariffs targeting China have contributed to a manufacturing revival in the southern part of North America....

• The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden - the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers. • Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at...

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own. Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto...

We consider welfare impacts of prohibitive tariffs on trading partners. Initially, there is prohibitive tariff by one country and a zero tariff by its trading partner. Thereafter, the trading partner also resorts to prohibitive tariff. We demonstrate how prohibitive tariffs by the trading...

This Report gives an overview of the effective import tariff rates of the US on its most important trade partners in 2025 and the first months of 2026. Our analysis shows that the average effective bilateral US tariff rate on imports from the European Union (EU) was only 7.8 per cent from...

This paper documents stylized facts about the "Great Reallocation" in US supply chain trade following the 2018-2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements. We find that: (i) The US has decoupled from China but not from the world overall. (ii) US imports diversified mainly...

This Policy Brief evaluates the trade policy of Donald Trump during the first year of his second presidential term. The administration pursued a strongly protectionist agenda, implementing new tariffs on a wide range of products and trading partners, including long‑standing allies such as the...

Objective: Applying the integrated framework of the entrepreneurial event model (EEM) and theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this study examined how Artificial Intelligence self-efficacy, competency, and knowledge shape perceived desirability and feasibility of international entrepreneurship,...

The return of trade policy as an instrument of geopolitics has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system. But Trump's tariffs of 2025 have not led to a collapse of global trade. The key reason for this resilience is that Trump's tariffs are discriminatory, i.e. the US has a...

As electricity systems become more reliant on variable renewable generation and increasingly shaped by digital technologies, policymakers and regulators face a dual challenge: enabling consumers to benefit from the energy transition while ensuring that their behaviour supports system needs. In...

U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals-revenue, protection, and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we illustrate these trade-offs through the lens of...

Statutory tariff rates may overstate the tariffs actually paid due to evasion and avoidance. We develop a novel method to estimate tariff compliance and apply it to the 2018 trade war, when several countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Estimated compliance falls by 25 percentage...