A House Price-At-Risk Model to Monitor the Downside Risk for the Spanish Housing Market

We present a house price-at-risk (HaR) model that fits the historical developments in the Spanish housing market. By means of quantile regressions we show that a model including quarterly real house price growth, a misalignment measure and a consumer confidence index is able to accurately forecast the developments in the Spanish housing market up to two years ahead. We also show how the HaR model can be used to monitor the downside risk

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Year of publication:	2023
Authors:	Ganics, Gergely ; Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Spanien \| Spain \| Immobilienpreis \| Real estate price \| Wohnungsmarkt \| Housing market \| Immobilienmarkt \| Real estate market

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (30 p)
Series:	Banco de Espana Working Paper ; No. 2244, 2023
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 23, 2023 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.4335206 [DOI]
Classification:	C31 - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; G01 - Financial Crises ; R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258060