A Non-parametric Approach to Small Area Estimation with Application to Madhya Pradesh, India

This paper proposes a simple approach to extrapolate demographic indicators at the local level to a recent date for which estimate of the demographic indicator is available at the aggregate level through the application of data mining technique. The approach has been applied to estimate the probability of death in the first five years of life in the districts of Madhya Pradesh, India for the year 2017 corresponding to the estimate of under-five mortality rate for Madhya Pradesh for the year 2017 available through India’s official sample registration system