We estimate the contribution of large U.S, banks to the financial sector systemic risk by using value-at-risk (VaR ), conditional value-at-risk (CoV aR ), and two-stage least square (2SLS) methodology, Our sample is the monthly stock returns of 25 large U.S, banks from 1997 to 2021, We find that banks contributing more to the systemic risk have lower future returns on average, We also sort the portfolios' future returns into five pentiles based on systemic risk contribution (SRC) and find that portfolios with high SRC earn lower future returns than those with low SRC, Our second contribution to the literature is the indication of the endogeneity problem in the SRC measures, We suggest an identification strategy for the estimation of SRC measures, Our results are contrary to some of the earlier studies, which concluded that the Dodd-Frank act of 2010 failed to eliminate the too-big-to-fail problem in banks, Such studies showed that anticipation of government subsidies has not been eliminated in the form of higher expected returns even for banks contributing more to systemic risk of the financial system, The results in our present study open a new research direction and are useful for investors and policymakers.Existing literature has relied on economic fundamentals (EFs) to determine commodity price booms and busts, This framework has been unable to account for major economic non-fundamentals (ENFs), This study takes a broader view of major ENFs that expands beyond the traditional demand and supply indicators to evaluate the response of commodity price booms and busts at both aggregate and disaggregate levels, To obtain consistent estimates, this study utilizes the advantages of the dynamic fixed-effect within instrumental variable method as an estimator to evaluate the behavior of 37 agricultural, energy, and metal commodity prices over 1980-2020, Our results indicate that relative to EFs, ENFs are the predominant driving force of commodity price booms and bursts at aggregate levels, In the case of EFs, the demand-side stimulates commodity prices, whereas the supply-side tends to depress them, however, the former effect tends to outweigh the latter effect, However, on the ENFs front, the dollar-denominated variable is one of the most powerful factors behind commodity price soars and bursts, Meanwhile, at the disaggregate level, the impact of EFs and ENFs is in tandem with that of the aggregate-level commodities, However, world uncertainty tends to depress the prices of energy and metal commodities, Our analysis implies that global demand and supply generated booms and busts in commodity prices have macroeconomic effects on both exporting and importing economies, Along with that, policymakers may need to consider the role of the rise and fall in the value of the dollar as well as that of the financialization of commodities, which were found to have a significant effect on commodity price booms and busts, Countries thus need to devise policies that may help moderate the negative effects of world uncertainty and geopolitical risk.
