Cruising into the Ghibli : Requirements for EU Humanitarian Intervention in Libya
Calls for an independent European security policy have increased following the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the AUKUS submarine deal, but does the EU currently have the forces it needs to deal with a short-term security emergency on its own? Given the importance of immigration for EU cohesion and domestic politics, could an attempt to forestall mass refugee immigration through military means succeed? This paper presents an open-source net assessment of a hypothetical humanitarian intervention by the combined forces of the European Union aimed at establishing safe havens in Libya and stopping the flow of refugees departing from Africa. In doing so it assesses the readiness of current EU forces and their ability to respond to a fast-evolving crisis in their near abroad. Taken together, the operation described here would be the largest joint EU operation in history, but each of its constituent parts (air, sea, ground operations) would be a smaller version of a past EU or EU member state military campaign. The campaign scenario envisioned is a “soft case” for EU forces given Libya’s location and the fact that all combatants agree to allow the havens to be established. Still, the proposed operation would sorely tax core EU capabilities like logistics and ISR. The EU can establish and possibly defend safe havens in in its near abroad by itself, but without US or UK assistance, it cannot do much more than that