Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

This paper evaluates professional forecasters’ behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock–bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Fujiwara, Ippei ; Ichiue, Hibiki ; Nakazono, Yoshiyuki ; Shigemi, Yosuke
Published in:	Economics Letters. - Elsevier, ISSN 0165-1765. - Vol. 118.2013, 3, p. 526-530
Publisher:	Elsevier
Subject:	Anchoring \| Forecast revisions \| Over-reaction \| Under-reaction \| Survey forecasts

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Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles ; G17 - Financial Forecasting
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010688091