Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints : a quantitative growth theoretic perspective

Bruno Lanz (The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies), Simon Dietz (London School of Economics and Political Science), Tim Swanson (The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)

We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

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Year of publication:	May 2016
Authors:	Lanz, Bruno ; Dietz, Simon ; Swanson, Timothy M.
Publisher:	Geneva, Switzerland : Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
Subject:	Global population \| Technological progress \| Economic growth \| Agriculture \| Malthusian constraints \| Land conversion \| Structural estimation \| Technischer Fortschritt \| Technological change \| Bevölkerungswachstum \| Population growth \| Welt \| World \| Wachstumstheorie \| Growth theory \| Agrarboden \| Agricultural soil \| Wirtschaftswachstum \| Bevölkerungstheorie \| Population theory

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten) Illustrationen
Series:	Working paper / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. - Genève : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ZDB-ID 2523350-6. - Vol. no. IHEIDWP2016-04
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/156120 [Handle]
Classification:	O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development ; O13 - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products ; J11 - Demographic Trends and Forecasts ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; C61 - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis ; Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation ; Q24 - Land
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478553