Heterogeneous displacement effects of migrant labor supply: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany

We provide estimates of the effect of migrant labor supply on resident employment. We exploit variation in the number of asylum seekers eligible to the suspension of a major hiring restriction implemented in a subset of German counties. Our difference-in-difference design allows us to provide evidence from a labor supply shock of migrants on local markets net of their additional spending at arrival that might mask labor market displacement effects. Despite this, we do not find a negative effect on employment growth of natives but only on other foreign residents. This also holds for unskilled employees. Therefore, our findings can be interpreted as the consequence of differential substitutability of different subgroups, where asylum seekers are substitutes to other immigrants but not natives - even when they are similarly qualified.