How Much Stress Could COVID Put on Corporate Credit? Evidence Using Sectoral Data

The economic downturn prompted by the Covid pandemic was historically deep and highly divergent at a sectoral level. We project corporate credit losses for the G7 economies, China and Australia until 2022 and find that they could be substantial for the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Yet, because those sectors account for a relatively small share of total corporate borrowing, aggregate corporate credit loss rates (ie losses in relation to the stock of corporate debt) could fall short of those sustained during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09