Impacto dos investimentos do PAC em Minas Gerais: efeitos sobre crescimento e desigualdade

The Brazilian federal government has recently set out plans encompassing detailed public expenditure programs and targets on infra-structure investment (PAC, Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento). We investigate the sectoral, regional and national economic consequences of the PAC in Minas Gerais. Our modeling encompasses much detail. Firstly, we use a large-scale multi-regional CGE model of Brazil. The model is both bottom-up and top-down: bottom-up for Brazil's 27 states, and top-down for Brazil's 558 microrregions. Despite the high level of regional disaggregation, the level of sectoral disaggregation is also high, at 36 sectors. Secondly, we model the PAC in detail, considering each of the 9 sets of expenditure programs under the 2008-11 plan. We find that the PAC can have strong impacts in Minas Gerais, but can contribute to a increase in regional inequality in the state in long run.