Mitigating the impact of extreme weather events on agricultural markets through trade

Extreme weather events can disrupt agricultural markets, but agricultural trade can help address subsequent food security concerns. Using the Aglink-Cosimo model, this stochastic scenario analysis sheds light on the complex relationships between trade and food security in an environment where extreme weather events create uncertainty. The analysis suggests that trade integration makes countries less vulnerable to negative yield shocks by mitigating the risk of extreme food prices and by stabilising food availability. Although no model can capture the complex process and consequences of opening this sector to trade, it is clear that trade integration needs to be part of a wider coherent policy package to improve food security.