Pandemics and Cities : Evidence from the Black Death and the Long-Run
We ask what effects a high fatality rate pandemic could have on long-run urban economic development. The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of Black Death mortality on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. Both of these facts are consistent with populations returning to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study thus highlights the role played by pandemics and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of cities in less developed economies
Year of publication: |
2022
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Authors: | Jedwab, Remi ; Johnson, Noel D. ; Koyama, Mark |
Publisher: |
[S.l.] : SSRN |
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freely available
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