Seasonality in Indian Commodities Market : Insights for Modeling from Preceding Commodity Cycle

In this study, we analyze the seasonal behaviour of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near-month futures prices to remove basis variance. The paper aims to investigate the seasonal behaviour of selected commodities in India using monthly seasonal dummies. We found seasonal variations in gold, barley, guar and Jeera commodities. In a declining interest-rate scenario and Post-Covid world, there is an elevated likelihood that we will witness the next commodities super-cycle. It is imperative for hedge fund managers, global investors, commodities traders, high net-worth individuals, market participants and spread traders to know what to expect based on the preceding super-cycle to strategize better and address seasonality