Stabilization Policy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries

The trade-off between income distribution and stabilization is one of the least understood in development economics. The paper reviews the recent literature on the effects of devaluation and monetary and fiscal policy. Devaluation is shown to have a significant impact on incomes through both its expenditure switching and reducing effects, this varying with the time perspective taken. The implications of these effects for poverty are explored, and shown in principle to be complex and uncertain. Similarly, monetary and fiscal restraint is shown to influence income distribution through changes in the level and structure of output. How changes in monetary and fiscal policy affect the poor in developing countries is again difficult to determine theoretically. The labor market is shown to be a key determinant of how policy changes are transmitted to poverty groups. The paper concludes that rigorous empirical research on this subject is long overdue