The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence
Using monthly stock and bond return data in the past 150 years (1855-2001) for both the US and the UK, this study documents time-varying stock-bond correlation over macroeconomic conditions (the business cycle, the inflation environment and monetary policy stance). There are different patterns of time variation in stock-bond correlations over the business cycle between US and UK, which implies that bonds may be a better hedge against stock market risk and offer more diversification benefits to stock investors in the US than in the UK. Further, there is a general pattern across both the US and the UK during the post-1923 subperiod and during the whole sample period: higher stock-bond correlations tend to follow higher short rates and (to a lesser extent) higher inflation rates.
Year of publication: |
2009
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Authors: | Yang, Jian ; Zhou, Yinggang ; Wang, Zijun |
Published in: |
Journal of Banking & Finance. - Elsevier, ISSN 0378-4266. - Vol. 33.2009, 4, p. 670-680
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Stock-bond correlation Business cycle Asymmetry Smooth transition GARCH |
Saved in:
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