Überrenditen durch Point and Figure-Charts: Zufall oder System?

This article examines the question whether a point and figure (P and F)-based investment strategy yields statistical significant excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold (B and H)-strategy. The simulations show that P and F slightly outperforms B and H with respect to returns as well as with respect to the reward-to-variability-ratio. However, a bootstrap experiment shows that this superiority is statistically insignificant and hence not economically exploitable. Additionally, the bootstrapped returns are compatible with the original returns under the assumption of an efficient capital market. Altogether, there seems to be no evidence that the P and F-strategy is superior to the B and H-strategy nor that P and F is capable of detecting patterns in the data that can be exploited economically.