Сценарии перехода к устойчивым темпам добычи нефти в России

The rates of oil depletion are increasing during the last ten years in Russia and the Russian Energy Program, approved by the government, implies further growth of oil production by 2020. We used the transition curves analysis in aggregate model to examine the long-run consumption along different possible paths of oil extraction. We conclude that the long-run consumption along the paths associated with the Energy Program is about twice as less as the consumption along the paths switching to sustainable extraction in the short run.