هل تؤثر الأزمة المالية العالمية في الاقتصاد السعودي؟ تحليل عبر نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي

The paper aims to exhibit the impacts of the international financial crisis on the real economy of Saudi Arabia through economic and financial channels, which connect the Saudi economy to the world economy. Based on the mechanism of international liquidity and its relationship to the net-exports and GDP, and using database from 1968 to 2009, we estimate SVAR model founded the interpretation of structural shock of the global reserves assets as a shock in the international financial markets, and as a shock in the monetary and financial government policies. The findings indicate that a negative shock of international liquidity i.e. more foreign reserves assets leads in the long-run to real economic growth after its fall back in the short-run. This economic growth could allow increase in net-exports with the probable decrease in the imports. We expect that the simulated negative shocks from the monetary authorities would reduce the saving glut effect in the Saudi economy and transform it to an absorption effect. If the negative shock happening during the last international financial crisis, due to the decrease in the foreign asset prices, has a transitory impact on GDP, it is more expected in the future that will have a permanent impact.