延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?

In the situation of rapid population aging, postponing retirement is a timely and effective measure in relieving pressure of old age support. However, many people think that postponing retirement will crowd out youth employment. Using data in China, this paper shows that this judgment cannot be supported by empirical evidence. Using data from 1990 census, 2000 census and 2005 1% population sample survey, this paper examines the impact of employment of older persons on employment of younger persons. Our OLS estimation results suggest that employment of younger persons is positively instead of negatively correlated with employment of older persons. We further dealt with the potential endogeneity of the OLS estimation by employing two-way fix-effects and TSLS estimation strategies. The results still suggest that increase of employment of older persons will promote rather than depress employment of younger persons. We also found a positive effect of employment of older persons on young workers’ wage. This study suggests that postponing retirement wouldn’t crowd out employment of younger persons.