经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理

This paper empirically analyze the nonlinear relation between real output per capital and public debt by employing threshold cointegration method based on ARDL model. Empirical results show that there exists a threshold cointegration relationship between government debt and real output per capital. In case of the empirical results, cutting government debt could boost economic growth in the long term. However, the short term variation of government debt makes little impact on real output per capital. Comparatively speaking, human capital and investment rate and trade openness make larger influence on real output per capital. From the perspective of economic policy, the government should take full advantage of the fiscal policy to cut the government debt with the operation space of monetary policy being compressed.