한국의 중간재 교역 결정요인과 생산성 파급효과에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Determinants and Productivity Spillover Effects of Korea's Intermediate Goods Trade)

The effects of imported intermediate on domestic competitive sectors depend on technology types and the trade relations with exporting countries. The productivity effects of imported input on final sectors using the imported intermediates are affected not by shares of imports but by amounts of imports. The greater the industry linkage relations of industy affected by imported intermediates' productivity are, the greater the real GDP growth rate and welfare improvement are. Based on this analysis, we make three policy proposals. First policy proposal includes domestic technology development for replacing imported inputs, aggressive FDI promotion, and raising concern for producer services as intermediate goods to mitigate the dependency on imported intermediate goods. Second, we propose investment in human capital, enhancement of institutional level, and improvement of investment environment to strengthen the comparative advantage. Last, we recommend to develop trade policy strategy taking intermediate goods trade into consideration. The strategies include inducing high-level concessions for industry with comparative advantage, open strategy considering technology types and industrial characteristics, increasing efforts toward exporting to enhance learning by exporting effects, and raising interest in opening intermediate service sectors