Sector-level tests of the feasibility of green growth: Carbon intensity versus economic and productivity growth indicators

In this paper we present a sector-based approach to investigate whether green growth – combining economic growth with environmental sustainability – is feasible. Our approach considers the relation between on the one hand carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of output (what we will call carbon intensity) and on the other growth in economic output and labor productivity, at the level of production sectors. Carbon intensity (CI) is calculated in two ways: as direct CO2 emissions from each sector, which can be seen to immediately result from the processes in the respective sector; and as total, direct plus indirect, emissions, by using environmentally-extended input-output tables. The analysis covers Denmark, Germany and Spain for the period 1995-2007. We calculate correlations over time between sectoral CIs and a range of economic indicators: sectoral total and relative output, final demand, value added, and so-called output and valued-added productivity indicators, and their change. The findings are similar for the two types of CI indicators. The bad news for green growth is that relatively clean sectors do not seem to be more productive than dirtier ones, and neither show higher productivity growth. Sectors associated with high carbon intensity grew more in absolute terms than those with low carbon intensity. The share of these sectors increased suggesting that green growth requires a very rapid pace of decarbonization, or the economy as a whole to shrink. Longer-term sectoral growth on the other hand, as expressed by a change in value added, does not seem to be positively correlated with carbon intensity.