Revisiting the Stability/Instability Paradox in Cyberspace : Lessons From the Russo-Ukraine War

A paradoxical stability reigned the Cold War-era. While the nuclear threat could destroy the planet several times over, there was geopolitical stability in the bipolar system: the mutually assured destruction averted all out-war - but did not prevent skirmishes. The end of the bipolar Cold War-era came at a price as it heralded the end of the strategic equilibrium, and increased instability, conflict and violence. In that same timeframe cyberspace emergences, a new domain of strategic competition and rivalry. As with nuclear weapons, generating large scale cyber-capacities to engage in competition or conflict, appear to be the prerogative of global powers including the US, China, Russia, and some regional powers. Though the attributes of cybercapacities differ from nuclear weapons the Stability-Instability paradox seemed similarly applicable to cyberspace since there was stability in great-power competition, without discounting the instability due to cyber-related subversive activities or intelligence contests. The fragile post-Cold War world order shattered with the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The influx of non-state actors, of commercial entrepreneurs engaging in the conflict without becoming belligerents, urges for revisiting the question whether the Stability/Instability paradox is still valid in cyberspace