Projections of national demand and bed capacity requirements for public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2023-2040: Based on the Hippocrates model

Historic underinvestment, coupled with a growing and ageing population, has led to capacity constraints in public acute hospitals in Ireland. This is evidenced by ageing infrastructure, large waiting lists and long waiting times for elective treatment, as well as pressure on unscheduled care services and high inpatient occupancy rates (ORs). Due to the time and resources required to build new infrastructure, change service delivery models and provide the requisite levels of staffing, it is crucial that demand projection exercises are regularly undertaken to provide a medium- to long-term perspective on future requirements. Evidence-based capacity planning is essential to ensure safe and effective delivery of healthcare. As part of the Department of Health/Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Research Programme in Healthcare Reform, over the past ten years the ESRI has developed the Hippocrates projection model. Previous analyses have applied Hippocrates to provide medium- to long-term projections of healthcare demand, bed capacity, expenditure and workforce requirements. This recent work, completed under the healthcare reform programme, has used the model to provide up-to-date projections for three service areas - public acute hospitals, general practice and older people's services - to 2040. All care in public acute hospitals is considered in this report, regardless of whether it is publicly or privately financed.