Hydrogen in China: Why China's success in solar PV might not translate to electrolyzers

China's manufacturing capabilities and advancements in reducing electrolyzer costs have sparked both hopes and concerns about its potential to dominate global electrolyzer production and exports. This is often compared to China's success in solar photovoltaics (PV), where dramatic cost reductions and subsequent control over supply chains have established its leadership in the sector. This paper explores whether China can replicate its success in solar with electrolyzers, considering government support, learning rates of PV and electrolyzers, Chinese corporate strategies, and the external environment for exports. The paper argues that even though China's mature systems of manufacturing innovation and government support have enabled significant cost reductions for alkaline electrolyzers, and made it possible for Chinese manufacturers to catch up in proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, they cannot guarantee dominance in global electrolyzer supply chains. This is because of the unique manufacturing characteristics of electrolyzers, uncertain prices for renewable hydrogen and the growing trend of trade protectionism.