A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle

This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the c

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Year of publication:	2009
Authors:	Al-Hassan, Abdullah
Publisher:	Washington : International Monetary Fund
Subject:	Arabische Golf-Staaten \| Gulf countries \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator \| Währungsunion \| Monetary union \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle

Extent:	Online-Ressource (36 p)
Series:	IMF Working Papers IMF working paper ; WP/09/73
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Description based upon print version of record Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. Generalized Dynamic Factor Model; B. Estimating Common Components by a One-Sided Filter; Figures; 1. Average Dynamic Eigenvalues Over Cross-Sectional Units; 2. Percentage of Variance Explained; III. Building a GCC Area Database; IV. A Coincident Indicator for the GCC Business Cycle; A. Definition of the Coincident Indicator Properties; 3. Spectral Density Functions of All Eigenvalues; 4. Average of Spectral Density Functions; B. Properties of the Coincident Indicator; C. The Construction of a Coincident Indicator 5. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the GCC Area GDP Growth Rate6. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; 7. The GCC Coincident Indicator and the Common Component of National GDP; V. Degree of Commonality and Cyclical Behavior of the Variables; A. Degree of Commonality; B. Business Cycle: Stylized Facts; Tables; 1. The Direction and Timing of Variables Against the Coincident Indicator; VI. Observed Economic Variables and Latent Factors; VII. Conclusion; 2. Testing the Observed Macroeconomic Data Against the Latent Factors; Appendix; I: Data Set; Appendix Tables 1: Data, Degree of Commonality, and Cyclical BehaviorReferences
ISBN:	978-1-4518-7220-0 ; 978-1-4519-1655-3 ; 978-1-4518-7220-0
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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