A decision analysis of the U.S. breeder reactor program

Past modelling efforts have failed to reach a consensus on breeder R & D strategy. These failures have led some to question the usefulness of benefit-cost analysis for a problem as complex and as politicized as this one has become. Our paper examines some of the major weaknesses of past benefit-cost analyses and then reformulates the breeder investment decision in a decision tree framework. Decision analysis is used to evaluate alternative R & D strategies that range from accelerating the current effort to abandoning the entire program.