A DERIVATION OF THE OPTIMAL CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FOR BARBADOS, JAMAICA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

How can monetary authorities determine whether the current account balance is problematic? One method is based on the intertemporal consumption-smoothing model. This paper applies the intertemporal consumption-smoothing model - which is used to derive the optimal current account - to Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Once the optimal current account has been derived, it is then compared with actual current account balances and more stringent statistical tests to indicate the efficacy of the model. The findings indicate that the optimal consumption-smoothing model is neither applicable to Barbados nor Trinidad and Tobago, but in contrast, the optimal model that assumes no restrictions on capital flows is valid for Jamaica.