A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria.

A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

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Year of publication:	1996
Authors:	Armour, J. ; Atta-Mensah, J. ; Engert, W. ; Hendry, S.
Institutions:	Bank of Canada
Subject:	INFLATION \| ECONOMIC MODELS \| FORECASTS

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Series:	Working Papers.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Notes:	19 pages
Classification:	C20 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models. General ; E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005673307