A distribution dynamics approach to regional GDP convergence in reunified Germany

This paper presents an empirical study of GDP per worker (and per capita) convergence across German labour market regions during 1992 to 2002 using nonparametric techniques. There is evidence for a tendency towards convergence during the observed period, i.e. regions that were less productive in 1992 (East-German regions) established a higher relative GDP in 2002. It is an advantage of our approach that it allows to make predictions about the long run distribution of regional production. We predict a persistent inequality among German regions. This result implies that the substantial regional policy expenditures made by the German government and the EU will not achieve their aim of equalisation, and need therefore to be critically reviewed.