A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare index, called quality of life (QuoL), emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We calibrate a multigenerational model with education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Intergenerational Maximin criterion, and, second, Human Development Optimization, that maximizes the QuoL of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. The computed paths have a QuoL higher than the year 2000 level for all generations. They require doubling the labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. Higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increases in the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.