A dynamic and stochastic analysis of fertilizer use in swidden agriculture

The number of times a crop can be harvested on a cleared parcel of forest land (CPFL) before this land must be fallowed is dependent on the decision to use or not to use fertilizers to enhance soil fertility. As such, we first construct a theoretical model of fertilizer use by a swidden cultivator when this cultivator can choose whether or not to enhance soil fertility by using fertilizers. Second, we analyze two different policies (fertilizer use and no fertilizer use) for overseeing the problem of soil fertility deterioration on the CPFL. Finally, we identify a particular likelihood function and we show that whether the problem of soil fertility impairment is best addressed with a fertilizer use policy or with a no fertilizer use policy depends essentially on this likelihood function.