A Dynamic Child Survival Function: Natural Convergence and Economic Policy

Convergence has been much less studied with regards to human development than it has been done in economic growth models. However, since the evolution of human development indicators is bounded, the analyse of their convergence may be importantly biased. This paper investigates the question of child survival convergence, attempting to identify the most relevant dynamic survival function, taking into account the characteristics of any bounded indicator. This function enables us to assess the impact of economic factors on child survival, and in particular that of relative prices. The econometric analysis relies on a dynamic panel with 5-years periods, covering 1965-1999 for 100 countries. The method used, namely the GMM System, enables us to test a dynamic model while controlling for the heterogeneity of the sample. We do not reject the assumption that that beside its effect through the level of income, real depreciation of the currency may lead to a deterioration of child survival in poor countries.