A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated model for manpower forecasting for the information security (IS) industry, one of the fastest growing IT‐related industries. The proposed model incorporates three critical factors (feedback structure, time lags, and a flexible saturation point) in a system dynamics (SD) simulation frame. Design/methodology/approach – A simulation model using SD is developed for a dynamic manpower forecasting by decomposing complex processes of manpower planning into a set of feedback loops with a causal‐loop diagram. Data gathered from a Korean Government agency were utilized in the simulation for forecasting the manpower demand and supply in the context of the IS industry. Findings – The simulation results showed an overall IS manpower shortage in the IS industry. Policy alternatives were proposed based on the simulation results. The simulation model was rerun to reflect the various alternatives to achieve a stable manpower balance between demand and supply. Originality/value – The research provides insights into the development of effective manpower planning at the industry level (macro level), and policies to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The research model was developed and verified using SD.