A Dynamic Model of the U.S. Tobacco Economy

A 14 equation recursive model is developed for (1) flue-cured acreage, (2) burley acreage, (3) flue-cured price, (4) burley price, and (5) consumer demand for cigarettes. The coefficients are estimated using data for 1954-70. The reduced form and the impact multipliers are derived. The multipliers are used to illustrate the impact of a 3.5-cent increase in the support rate for flue-cured tobacco. A comparison of the reduced-form estimated values with observed values of 14 endogenous variables showed a good fit for the model over the period studied.