A factor-augmented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland

The paper describes the results of estimation of a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model that relates the markup on mortgage loans in national currency, granted to households by monetary financial institutions, and 3-month inter-bank rate that approximates the cost of funds for financial institutions. The factors by which the model is augmented, summarize information that can be used by banks to forecast interest rates and determine risk premium. The estimation results indicate that there is a significant relation between the changes in the markup and the changes in 3-month WIBOR. This relation can be interpreted as evidence of incomplete transmission of shocks from the inter-bank rate to mortgage rates set by banks. The shocks to 3-month WIBOR are partially absorbed by changes in the markup. The relation between the markup and various groups of macroeconomic and financial indicators are studied on the basis of impulse response analysis and structural interpretation of the estimated factors.