A Gate to the World for All? The Reaction of Neighborhoods in Hamburg to Refugee Housings

This paper analyses the political reaction of residents to refugee housings in their neighborhood. The city of Hamburg, Germany, experienced between 2014 and 2017 large refugee inflows that required many new housings. Openings of refugee houses led to an increase of 0.9 percentage points in the vote share of right-wing anti-immigrant parties in the neighborhood. The effect is found for reception centers and follow-up accommodations and for different inhabitant compositions, but is smaller and short-lived for medium-sized housings. Results are robust to a matching estimator that accounts for an unbalanced distribution across neighborhoods. Neighborhoods in worse economic conditions, many foreigners and migrants and with multiple openings react more negatively. The right-wing gains come at a loss for the ruling party. Even though aggregate effects of the opening of housings on the overall voting success of right-wing parties are small, the negative reaction of neighborhoods suggests that the distribution and structure of refugee housings should receive more attention