A "Generalization" of the Logistic Curves and Long-Range Forecasts (1966-1991) of Residence Telephones

This paper investigates the development of a class of models suggested by an application of the logistic curve to model the growth of Bell System residence telephones. These models are expected to be more flexible than the "S"-shaped logistic curve. They allow the "potential expansion of growth" to be a function of a number of economic and sociological variables, e.g., the number of households, per capita disposable income, average revenue per telephone, etc. This approach resulted in the development of a useful model for forecasting Bell System residence telephones.