A METHOD FOR DETERMINING RANCH PROFIT PROBABILITIES WHEN LIVESTOCK YIELDS ARE NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED

Data on net turnoff for small, medium-sized and large cow-calf and small and large size yearling ranches were tested for normality using the Shapiro - Wilk test. The yield data examined were accepted as normally distributed at the alpha = .10 level. The probability of profit for each type of ranch was assessed using normal curve techniques for nine different cost-price alternatives and weather conditions. Yearling cattle ranchers had higher profit probabilities than cow-calf ranchers. Prices received had more influence on profit probabilities than weather conditions.