A METHOD FOR FORECASTING POPULATION CHANGES IN ALPINE, SEMI-ALPINE AND LOWLAND COMMUNITIES OF EPIRUS REGION IN GREECE

The prediction to the extent possible of the future size of the population of a region and its distribution among the settlements of the region is evidently significant for regional planning. In this paper, deriving data from population censuses, we attempted to predict the population of alpine, semi-alpine and lowland settlements of the Epirus Region. To perform the prediction, we applied a modified version of the shift and share method. In addition to applying the method, we evaluated its predictive ability in relation to a) the fixed share method, b) the fixed magnifications share method and c) the classical shift and share method, suggesting the relevant statistical tests.