A Model for Predicting Frequencies of Random Events

This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique bases future occurrences on an estimation procedure based on historical data. The estimation procedure incorporates two types of uncertainty: population variation and individual propensity to change. An example is presented.

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Year of publication:	1987
Authors:	Rosenfield, Donald
Published in:	Management Science. - Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS, ISSN 0025-1909. - Vol. 33.1987, 8, p. 947-954
Publisher:	Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences - INFORMS
Subject:	risk \| probability \| forecasting

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Other identifiers:	10.1287/mnsc.33.8.947 [DOI]
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208983