A Model of a Double Standard Exchange Rate System

In this paper I propose a "double standard" fixed exchange rate system which will be shown to have a higher expected lifetime than a conventional fixed exchange rate system. I present a simple variant of the classic Flood-Garber-Krugman model where the domestic currency is pegged to one of the two foreign currencies, depending on which exchange rate is lower; intuitively, this system thus corresponds to a gradual inflation stabilization program which will start at a future time that is determined by the foreign exchange market instead of the government. This type of a conditional peg implies that the domestic money holdings have a higher expected return as compared with the standard fixed exchange rate system. Since at each period there is a non-zero probability for the appreciation of the domestic currency, the demand for it is thus higher which decreases the probability of a speculative attack and increases the expected lifetime of the fixed exchange rate.