A note on export redirection : evidence following the onset of the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock, with German exports to Russia also collapsing abruptly. Using this break, we analyse whether the exports were redirected to other destinations. We divide the world market into three regions: domestic, eurozone, and the rest of the world (ROW). In a panel model of German industries, we find that higher export exposure to Russia meant lower sales to the ROW after the war began. This was offset by higher sales in the eurozone and domestic markets. The effects occurred quickly but later receded. We find no production decline due to the trade shock.