A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.

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Year of publication:	2012
Authors:	Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
Published in:	Economics Bulletin. - AccessEcon, ISSN 1545-2921. - Vol. 32.2012, 2, p. 1291-1301
Publisher:	AccessEcon
Subject:	Predicting recessions \| Probit \| narrow money \| real M1 \| euro area

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Classification:	E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles ; C5 - Econometric Modeling
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011278697