A Note on the Reliability Tests of Estimates from ARMS Data

USDA uses the concept of "publish-ability" rather than statistical reliability of an estimate for quality validation of USDA estimates, which is solely based on the sample size and the coefficient of variation (CV). We demonstrate conceptually how the reliability of the sample mean can be tested by estimating the upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval for an unknown population mean using the CV. However, the reliability test for the sample mean can be made only under the normality assumption. USDA multiple-way Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) estimates are used to illustrate the relative measure of precision for sample-based estimators.