A PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE LINKAGES BETWEEN ANIMAL WELFARE, TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN SCOTLAND

This research analyses the impacts of a scientific advance that improves animal welfare, upon the environment and trade in Scotland using partial equilibrium (PE) modelling. The science improves pig neonatal survival through improved (high fibre) sow diets used before mating. Our model simulates the effects of animal welfare changes on the pig production systems (pig meat) and further on trade flows (trade in pig meat) and environment (water and air pollution). We consider two animal welfare simulation scenarios, namely the status quo – no animal welfare change as regards pig neonatal mortality (baseline scenario) and the case of improving pig neonatal survival (alternative scenario) and compare the impacts on trade and environment between the two scenarios during the simulation horizon 2008-2015. The results show that the increase in animal welfare has a lower impact on the environment in the alternative scenario compared to the baseline scenario (by about 6% at the end of the simulation horizon) and a positive impact on net trade in the alternative scenario compared to the baseline scenario (by about 13% at the end of the simulation horizon).